MASR - 2015

Status	International Program Committee	Participation	Sponsors
Topics	National Organizing Committee	Publication	Registration Fee
MASR - 2015 Program		IPME RAS

THIRTEENTH INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC SCHOOL
in SAINT-PETERSBURG, RUSSIA, NOVEMBER 17 - 19, 2015

"MODELLING and ANALYSIS of SAFETY and RISK
in COMPLEX SYSTEMS" (MA SR – 2015)

STATUS

The Thirteenth International Scientific School "Modeling and Analysis of Safety and Risk in Complex Systems (MASR - 2015) will be held in Saint-Petersburg, Russia, November 17 - 19, 2015.

The School will be organized by Institute of Problems of Mechanical Engineering of Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS), Saint-Petersburg Institute of Informatics and Automation of RAS, Saint-Petersburg State University of Aerospace Instrumentation and "INO_TEL" Ltd. company with the support of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research.

Leading and well-known scientists will give lectures in the field of financial, social, informational and technical risks. The scientific program includes lectures and software demonstrations.

The official languages of the School are English and Russian.

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TOPICS

1. Technologies and Models for Economic Safety Control at Macro and Micro Level;

2. Methods of Quantitative Estimation, Analysis, Forecasting and Management of Risk and Efficiency in Economics and Engineering;

3. Risk Management Technologies in Structural Complex Technical and Economic Systems;

4. Risk Management Technologies Components;

5. Models and Procedures for Risk Management Technologies;

6. Risks Management Technologies Software;

7. Practical Applications of Risk Management Technologies in Economics and Engineering;

8. Risk Management Technologies in State Administration;

9. Models and Technologies of Informational Safety Management;

10. Models and Technologies of Ecological Risk Estimation and Analysis;

11. Educational Standards to Increase Competence in Estimation, Analysis and Risk Management in Systems and Processes.

Section "Technologies and Risk Models in Technical Systems"

Risk Models in Nuclear Power Engineering;
Scenarios and Models of Safety and Risk of Failure in Technical Systems;
Optimization in Risks Management Technologies;
Forecasting of Risk and Accidents in Technical Systems;
Analysis and Management of Risk and Efficiency under Statistical Data;
LP-models of Invalidity Risk in Systems and Processes for Functioning Quality Management under ISO 9001-2008;
Models, Methods and Software for Analysis and Control of Safety and Survivability of Structural Complex Power Systems;
Software for Modeling and Analysis of Risk and Efficiency;
Software Reliability.

Section "Technologies and Risk Models in Economics"

Market Risk;

Operational Risk;

Credit Risk;

Security Portfolio Risk;

Risk of Investments;

Operative and Strategic Management of Risk and Efficiency in Complex Systems;

Forecasting of Risk and Crisis in Economic Systems;

Risk Models in Macro- and MicroEconomics;

LP Risk Models for Economic Safety Control;

LP Risk Models for Innovation Management;

Technologies of Risk Management for Social and Economic Systems Evolution;

Classes of LP Risk Models for Risks Management Technologies: LP-modeling, LP-classification, LP-efficiency, LP-forecasting;

Procedures of Risks Management Technologies: Construction, Identification, Analysis, Forecasting and Risk Management, Software Development and Adaptation;

LP models for informational and analytical support of executive bodies of the Government;

LP Risk Models for Counteraction to Narcotization.

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INTERNATIONAL PROGRAM COMMITTEE

PRESIDIUM

Chairman:
N.A. Machutov, Corresponding Member of RAS (Russia, IME RAS),

Co-chairmen:
A.G. Aganbegyan, academician (Russia, RAS),
A. Agarwal, Professor (India, IIF & IIFBS),
Yu.A. Antokhina, (Russia, rector of SUAI),
A.A. Bykov, professor (Russia, journal "Issues of Risk Analysis);
K. Giannopoulos, Professor (Cyprus, Neapolis University),
G. Mondello, Professor (France, University of Nice Sophia Antipolis),
I.A. Ryabinin, Professor (Russia, Naval Academy),
R.I. Solnitsev, professor (Russia, SUAI),
E.D. Solojentsev, Professor (Russia, IPME RAS),
R.M. Yusupov, Corresponding Member of RAS (Russia, SPII RAS).

Section "Technologies and Risk Models in Engineering"

I.A. Ryabinin, Professor (Russia, Naval Academy) - chairman

Bochkov A.V., professor (Russia)	Prourzin V.A., cand. of science (Russia)
Finkelstein M.S., professor (S. Africa)	Rahim Y., Ph.D. (Norway)
Indeitsev D.A., corr. member of RAS (Russia)	Righini R., professor (Italy)
Kumamoto H., professor (Japan)	Rotshtein A., professor (Israel)
Morosov N.F., academician(Russia, SPSU)	Simakov I.P., cand. of science (Russia)
Mozhaev A.S., professor (Russia)	Tsiramua S.G., professor (Georgia)
Polenin V.I., professor (Russia)	Ushakov I.A., professor (USA)
Popentiu F., professor (Romania)	Volik B., professor (Russia)

Section "Technologies and Risk Models in Economics"

E.D. Solojentsev, Professor (Russia, IPME RAS) - chairman

Barone-Adesi G., professor (Switzerland) G.	Nikulin M., professor (France)
Gallais-Hamonno G., professor (France)	Novoselov A., professor (Russia)
Gallo G., professor (Italy)	Odinets V.P., professor (Russia)
Golembiovsky D.Yu., cand. of science (Russia)	Rogov M.A., cand. of science (Russia)
Hovanov N.V., professor (Russia)	Roy N., professor (USA)
Kibzun A.I., professor (Russia)	Rukhovets L.A., professor (Russia)
Kuznetsov S.V., professor (Russia)	Rutkauskas A.V., professor (Lithuania)
Lenz H.-J., professor (Germany)	Skiadopoulos G., professor (Greece)
Lesnykh V.V., professor (Russia)	Stepanov A.G., professor (Russia)
Sarbesh M., Ph.D. (India)	Vitlinsky V.V., professor (Ukraine)
Mityagin S.A., cand. of science (Russia)

NATIONAL ORGANIZING COMMITTEE

E.D. Solojentsev, Professor, (Russia, IPME RAS) - chairman,
V.V. Karasev (Russia, IPME RAS) - co-chairman,
E.I. Karaseva (Russia, SPbSUAI) - secretary,
V.I. Polenin (Russia, Naval Academy),
B.V. Sokolov (Russia, SPII RAS).

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PROGRAM

___________________________________________________________________
Tuesday, November 17
__________________________________________________________________

Plenary session 1, Auditorium 23-13, SUAI
Chairman N.V. Hovanov

10⁰⁰- 10³⁰	Opening of the International Scientific School MA SR - 2015. Polenin V.I. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, Naval Academy), Mozhaev A.S., Mozhaeva I.A. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, Joint-Stock Company "SPIK SZMA"). The Concept Of Constructing A System Of Automated Support Macro-Level Organizational Management Tasks And Risk With The Use Of Network Technologies.
10³⁰- 11⁰⁰	- Hovanov N.V. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, Saint Petersburg State University), James W. Kolari (USA, Texas A&M University), Sokolov M.V. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, Saint Petersburg State University). How Reduce Volatility Of The International Unit Of Account ?
11⁰⁰- 11³⁰	- Ryabinin I.A. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, Naval Academy). Logical And Probabilistic Method And Its Practical Application.
11³⁰- 11⁵⁰	- Coffee
11⁵⁰ - 12²⁰	- Zelentsov V.A., Pavlov A.N., Potryasaev S.A., Sokolov B.V., Yusupov R.M. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, SPII RAS), Ivanov D.A. (Germany, Berlin, Berlin High School Economics and Jurisprudence). Methods And Algorithms Of Complex Objects Proactive Control Technology Integrated Modelling And Simulation For Evaluation Their Effectiveness.
12²⁰- 12⁵⁰	- Solozhentsev E.D. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, IPME RAS). TOP-Economy.
12⁵⁰ - 13²⁰	- Kulik B.A. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, IPME RAS). Logic-Probabilistic Analysis With Consideration of Uncertainties.
13²⁰ - 13⁵⁰	- Uzhga-Rebrov O. (Latvia, Rezekne, Rezekne Higher Educational Institution), Kuleshova G. (Latvia, Riga, Institute of Information Technology, Riga Technical University). Combining Probability Estimates Obtained From Different Sources.
13⁵⁰ - 15⁰⁰	- Dinner.

Section "Technologies and Risk Models in Engineering and Ecology", Auditorium 23-10, SUAI
Chairman I.A. Ryabinin

15⁰⁰-15²⁰	- Sokolov B.V. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, SPII RAS), Pavlov A.N. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, SPII RAS, Military Space Academy named A.F. Mozhaysky), Pavlov A.A. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, SPII RAS, Military Space Academy named A.F. Mozhaysky), Slinko A.A. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, SPII RAS, Military Space Academy named A.F. Mozhaysky). Method Of Identification Of Potentially Dangerous Objects Of Critical Infrastructure.
15²⁰- 15⁴⁰	- Mozhaeva I.A., Nozik A.A., Strukov A.V. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, Joint-Stock Company "SPIK SZMA"), Chechulin A.A. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, SPII RAS). Modern Tendencies Of Structural And Logical Analysis Of Reliability and CyberSafety of Process Control Systems.
15⁴⁰- 16⁰⁰	- Britov G.S., Osipova T.F. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, Saint-Petersburg State University of Aerospace Instrumentation). Risks in Technological Processes of Systems Test Diagnostics of Dynamic Objects.
16⁰⁰- 16²⁰	- Podolyanets L.A. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, Mining University), Livshits I.I. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, "Gazinformservis"). Models of Safety Providing For Complex Industrial Objects On Basis Of Risk-Oriented Approach.
16²⁰- 16⁴⁰	- Break
16⁴⁰- 17⁰⁰	- Arkhipov V.I., Skobtsov V.Yu., Novoselova N.A., Alyushkevich V.B. (Belarus, Minsk, United Institute of Problems of Informatics of National Academy of Sciences of Belarus). The Development of Simulation Model For Operation Data of Some Systems of Small Satellites.
17⁰⁰- 17²⁰	- Karaseva E.I. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, Saint-Petersburg State University of Aerospace Instrumentation), Sukach E.I. (Belarus, Gomel, Gomel State University named F. Skorina), Karasev V.V. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, IPME RAS). Probabilistic Estimation of Software Reliability.

Section "Technologies and Risk Models in Economics", Auditorium 23-13, SUAI
Chairman N.V. Hovanov

15⁰⁰-15²⁰	- Rogov M.A. (Russia, Dubna, Dubna University). Frequency of Analysis of Russian Words With Root "Risk" As Indicator Paternalistic Mentality.
15²⁰- 15⁴⁰	- Stafeeva N.P. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, North-West Institute of Management). Development Of Program Module For Automation Of System Of Risk Management In Separate Cases Of Logistic Streams Of High And Average Risk.
15⁴⁰- 16⁰⁰	- Zalozhnev A.Yu. (Russia, Moscow, V.A. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences of Russian Academy of Sciences), Cherkunov L.A. (Russia, Moscow, Financial University). Models For Software Reliability Characteristics Calculation Of Financial Risk Limit Management System For Credit Organization's Investment Activity.
16⁰⁰- 16²⁰	- Bochkov V.A., Zhigirev N.N. (Russia, Moscow, Scientific Research Institute of Economics and Organization of Management in Gas Industry "NIIgaseconomika"). Development of Method of Alternatives Comparison in Decision Making Under Incomplete Uncertainty of Experts Preferences.

___________________________________________________________________
Wednesday, November 18
__________________________________________________________________

Plenary session 2, Auditorium 23-13, SUAI
Chairman I.A. Ryabinin

10⁰⁰- 10³⁰	- Yaroshenko A.V. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg). Strategic Modeling Problem.
10³⁰- 11⁰⁰	- Shishkin V.M., Savkov S.V. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, SPII RAS). The Automated System For Stochastic Risk Analysis.
11⁰⁰- 11³⁰	- Ryabinin I.A. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, Naval Academy). Probabilistic Logic And Logic Of Probabilities.
11³⁰ - 11⁵⁰	- Coffee
11⁵⁰ - 12²⁰	- Pyatkov A.G., Zolotarev V.V. (Russia, Krasnoyarsk, Siberian State Aerospace University named academician M. F. Reshetnev). Estimation Of SibCube Nano-Satellite Network Architecture Reliability With Logical-And-Probabilistic Method.
12²⁰- 12⁵⁰	- Budagov A.S., Michail Krichevsky M.L., Martynova Ju. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, Saint-Petersburg State University of Aerospace Instrumentation). Fuzzy Logic For Assessing Risk Of Innovative Project.
12⁵⁰ - 13²⁰	- Utkin L.V. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, Saint-Petersburg State Forestry Engineering University), Zhuk Yu.A. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, Saint-Petersburg National Research University of Information Technologies, Mechanics and Optics). A Robust Nonparametric Software Reliability Growth Model By Ageing Of Failure Data And Using Kolmogorov-Smirnov Bounds.
13²⁰ - 13⁵⁰	- Shubinsky I.B., Zamyshlyaev A.M. (Russia, Moscow, Scientific Research Project Construction Institute of Informatization, Automation and Communication at Railway Transport). Risk Management At Railway Transport.
13⁵⁰ - 15⁰⁰	- Dinner.

Section "Technologies and Risk Models in Engineering and Ecology", Auditorium 23-10, SUAI
Chairman I.A. Ryabinin

15⁰⁰-15²⁰	- Egorov A.A. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, Saint-Petersburg State Forestry Engineering University), Zhuk Yu.A. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, Saint-Petersburg National Research University of Information Technologies, Mechanics and Optics), Utkin L.V. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, Saint-Petersburg State Forestry Engineering University). An Estimate Of Factors That Impact On The Tree Resistance As A Part Of The Ecological Risk Analysis Using A Statistical Contamination Model.
15²⁰- 15⁴⁰	- Prourzin V.A. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, IPME RAS). Mathematical Model of Management of Reliability, Safety And Risk On Basis Of Function Of Fault's Danger.
15⁴⁰- 16⁰⁰	- Pustylnik P.N. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, Russian State Pedagogical University named A.I. Gertsen). Use For Of Program Complex Of "ASM" For Assess The Risk Of The Development Of Socio-Productive Structure.
16⁰⁰- 16²⁰	- Software Demonstration, Auditorium 14-08
16²⁰- 16⁴⁰	- Break
16⁴⁰- 17⁰⁰	- Astapovich E.I., Prokhorchik R. (Belarus, Minsk, Belorussian State University of Informatics and Radioelectronics). Rooms Safety Evaluation In Evacuation Scenario Using Crowd Simulation Model.
17⁰⁰- 17²⁰	- Petrovsky E., Gagina M.V. (Russia, Krasnoyarsk, Siberian Federal University). Forecasting Of Risk And Accidents In Technical Systems Of Oil And Gaz Complex.

Section "Technologies and Risk Models in Economics", Auditorium 23-13, SUAI
Chairman E.D. Solojentsev

15⁰⁰-15²⁰	- Kuklina E.A. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, North-West Institute of Management). Current Risks And Threats For Banking Business.
15²⁰- 15⁴⁰	- Kussy M.Yu. (Crimea Republic, Simferopol, Crimean Federal University named V.I. Vernadsky, Institute of Economics and Management). Quantitative Measure Of Financial Market Volatility.
15⁴⁰- 16⁰⁰	- Arkhipov V.I., Kuraedov E.V. (Belarus, Minsk, United Institute of Problems of Informatics of National Academy of Sciences of Belarus). Approach Development For Risks Decrease By Trade Tools Automatic Selection.
16⁰⁰- 16²⁰	- Software Demonstration, Auditorium 14-08

Other lectures

Afanasiev V.V., Mardanshin E.R. (Russia, Kazan, Kazan National Research Technical University named after A.N.Tupolev - KAI (KNRTU-KAI)). Functional-rejection filter to ensure the reliability of communication systems

Baranova E.K., Khudyshkin A.A. (Russia, Moscow, Higher School Of Economics National Research University). Features Of An Analysis Of Information Systems Security Using Penetration Testing.

Gritsiyk P.M., Babich T.Yu. (Ukraine, Rovno, National University of Water Economy and Nature Management). Profitability Of Ukrainian Grain Production: The Factors Of Risk.

Zhigulsky V.A., Shuysky V.F., Maximova E.Yu., Solovey N.A. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, "Eko-Express-Servis" Ltd.). Express-Forecast Of Environmental Costs Of Dredging And Artificial Land Formation.

Kaminsky A.B. (Ukraine, Kiev, Kiev National University named T. Shevcnenko). Scoring Tools Of Credit Risk Management.

Karaseva E.I. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, Saint-Petersburg State University of Aerospace Instrumentation), Sukach E.I. (Belarus, Gomel, Gomel State University named F. Skorina), Akulenko E.V., Sumachakova Ch.A., (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, Saint-Petersburg State University of Aerospace Instrumentation), Karasev V.V. (IPME RAS). Methods Of Software Reliability Estimation For Increasing of Competitiveness of Enterprises.

Kardash O.L. (Ukraine, Rovno, National University of Water Economy and Nature Management). Risks And Threats Of Food Security of Ukraine.

Krymsky V., Zhalbekov I. (Russia, Bashkortostan, Ufa, Ufa State University of Economics and Service), Perš Ja., Mandeljñ R., Kristan M., Kovačič S., (Slovenia, Ljubljana, University of Ljubljana). Horizon Detection for Robotic Marine Vehicles Based on Fusion of Visual and Inertial Measurements: Reducing Risk to Miss the Obstacles.

Nozik A.A., Strukov A.V. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, Joint-Stock Company "SPIK SZMA"). Comments To RePublication Of Work By Poretsky P.S. "Decision Of General Task Of Probability Theory With Help Of Mathematical Logic".

Sigal A.V. (Crimea Republic, Simferopol, Crimean Federal University named V.I. Vernadsky). About Sequencies Which Satisfy Simple And Partially Strengthen Linear Ratios of Order.

Sukach E.I. (Belarus, Gomel, Gomel State University named F. Skorina), Karaseva E.I. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, Saint-Petersburg State University of Aerospace Instrumentation), Sheremetyev S.V. (Belarus, Gomel, Gomel State University named F. Skorina), Zherdetsky Yu.V. (Belarus, Gomel, Gomel State University named F. Skorina). Technique Of Estimation Of Probabilistic Parameters Of Information System Reliability Formalized As Oriented Graphs-Quadripoles.

Harin A.A. (Russia, Moscow, Zelenograd, Modern Humanitarian Academy). General Bounds In Economics And Engineering At Data Dispersion And Risk.

Shishkin D., Galkina A. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, Saint-Petersburg State University of Aerospace Instrumentation). Estimation Of Market Value Of Company By EVA Method.

Shishkin D., Ivanova A. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, Saint-Petersburg State University of Aerospace Instrumentation). General Techniques Of Rating Estimations.

Olakunle Felix Adekunle (Malaysia, Kajang, Pusat Bahasa Laguna). Integrated Risk Management As A Framework For Organisational Success.

ORGANIZING COMMITTEE ADDRESS

IPME RAS, Bolshoi pr., 61. V.O.
199178, St.Petersburg, RUSSIA
Tel.: 7(812)3214766 Fax.: 7(812)3214771
Evgueni Solojentsev - chairman
Vasily Karasev - co-chairman
E_mail: adm@inotel.org, inorisk@gmail.com .

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IISAD Main Page

1.	Technologies and Models for Economic Safety Control at Macro and Micro Level;
2.	Methods of Quantitative Estimation, Analysis, Forecasting and Management of Risk and Efficiency in Economics and Engineering;
3.	Risk Management Technologies in Structural Complex Technical and Economic Systems;
4.	Risk Management Technologies Components;
5.	Models and Procedures for Risk Management Technologies;
6.	Risks Management Technologies Software;
7.	Practical Applications of Risk Management Technologies in Economics and Engineering;
8.	Risk Management Technologies in State Administration;
9.	Models and Technologies of Informational Safety Management;
10.	Models and Technologies of Ecological Risk Estimation and Analysis;
11.	Educational Standards to Increase Competence in Estimation, Analysis and Risk Management in Systems and Processes.