International Program Committee




 National Organizing Committee


 Registration Fee

 MASR - 2016 Program


In Russian





The Fourteenth International Scientific School "Modeling and Analysis of Safety and Risk in Complex Systems (MASR - 2016) will be held in Saint-Petersburg, Russia, October 25 - 28, 2016.

The School will be organized by Institute of Problems of Mechanical Engineering of Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS), Saint-Petersburg Institute of Informatics and Automation of RAS, Saint-Petersburg State University of Aerospace Instrumentation and "INO_TEL" Ltd. company with the support of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research.

Leading and well-known scientists will give lectures in the field of financial, social, informational and technical risks. Plenary session and two subject sections will be organized. The scientific program includes lectures and software demonstrations.

The official languages of the School are English and Russian.



1. Relation Between Economics, State, Politics, Science and Society;
2. Top-Economics. Socio-Economic Safety Management;
3. Estimation, Analysis, Forecast and Management of Risk in Engineering and Economics;
4. Risk Management Technologies in Structural Complex Technical and Economic Systems;
5. Models and Procedures for Risk Management Technologies;
6. Invalidity and Events-Propositions;
7. Objective and Subjective Factors in Safety and Invalidity;
8. Risks Management Technologies Software;
9. Concepts and Principles of Safety Management in Socio-Economic Systems;
10. Hybrid Logical and Probabilistic (LP) Models of Risk in Socio-Economic Systems;
11. Practical Applications of Risk Management Technologies in Economics and Engineering;
12. Models and Technologies of Informational Safety Management;
13. Risk Management Technologies in State Administration;
14. What Mathematics Is Required by Economists ?

Section "Technologies and Risk Models in Engineeering"

 Scenarios and Models of Safety and Risk in Technical Systems;
 Optimization in Risks Management Technologies;
 Logical and Probabilistic (LP) Risk Models for Management of System's Evolution;
 Classes of LP Risk Models: LP-modeling, LP-classification, LP-efficiency, LP-forecast;
 Risk Management Procedures: LP Models Development, LP Models Identification, LP-analysis, LP-Forecast and LP-Management;
 Forecasting of Risk and Accidents in Technical Systems;
 Risk Models in Nuclear Power Engineering;
 Analysis and Management of Risk and Efficiency under Statistical Data;
 LP-models of Invalidity Risk in Systems and Processes for Functioning Quality Management under ISO 9001-2008;
 Models, Methods and Software for Analysis and Control of Safety and Survivability of Structural Complex Power Systems;
 Synthesis of Probabilities of Events by Expert Information;
 Software for Modeling and Analysis of Risk and Efficiency;
 Software Reliability.

Section "Technologies and Risk Models in Economics"

 Market Risk;
 Credit Risk, Monitoring and Crediting Process Control;
 Security Portfolio Risk;
 Risk Analysis and Estimation of Investment Projects;
 Operational Risk Models and Capital Reservation under Basel III;
 Operative and Strategic Management of Risk and Efficiency in Complex Systems;
 Forecasting of Risk and Crisis in Economic Systems;
 Risk Models in Macro- and MicroEconomics;
 Economic Safety Management;
 Scientific and Practical Importance of the Top-Economics;
 Objects of Top-Economics, New Kinds of Boolean Events-Propositions and LP Risk Models;
 Management of Socioeconomic System Evolution;
 Signal Events and Relation between Socioeconomic Systems and Environment;
 Regulation and Management in Economics;
 Risk Analysis in Socioeconomic Systems;
 LP Risk Models for Innovation Management;
 LP Risk Models for Counteraction to Narcotization;
 LP Risk Models for Counteraction to Corruption.





N.A. Machutov, Corresponding Member of RAS (Russia, IME RAS),

 A. Agarwal, Professor (India, IIF & IIFBS),
 Yu.A. Antokhina, (Russia, rector of SUAI),
G. Barone-Adesi, Professor (Switzerland, University of Lugano),
 A.A. Bykov, professor (Russia, journal "Issues of Risk Analysis);
 K. Giannopoulos, Professor (Cyprus, Neapolis University),
 A.I. Kotov, Cand. in Econ Sc. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg Administration),
 G. Mondello, Professor (France, University of Nice Sophia Antipolis),
 A.A. Nozik, director of JSC "SPIK SZMA" (Russia, JSC "SPIK SZMA"),
 I.A. Ryabinin, Professor (Russia, Naval Academy),
 E.D. Solojentsev, Professor (Russia, IPME RAS),
 R.M. Yusupov, Corresponding Member of RAS (Russia, SPII RAS).

Section "Technologies and Risk Models in Engineering"

 I.A. Ryabinin, Professor (Russia, Naval Academy) - chairman

Bochkov A.V., professor (Russia)

Popentiu F., professor (Romania)

Finkelstein M.S., professor (S. Africa)

Prourzin V.A., cand. of science (Russia)

Indeitsev D.A., corr. member of RAS (Russia)

Rahim Y., Ph.D. (Norway))

Kulik B.A., Doct. in Phys.-Mat. Sc. (Russia)

Rotshtein A., professor (Israel)

Kumamoto H., professor (Japan)

Simakov I.P., cand. of science (Russia)

Morosov N.F., academician(Russia, SPSU)

Strukov A.V., Cand. in Tech. Sc. (Russia)

Polenin V.I., professor (Russia)

Tsiramua S.G., professor (Georgia)

Section "Technologies and Risk Models in Economics"

 E.D. Solojentsev, Professor (Russia, IPME RAS) - chairman

Gallais-Hamonno G., professor (France)

Odinets V.P., professor (Russia)

Gallo G., professor (Italy)

Rogov M.A., cand. of science (Russia)

Hovanov N.V., professor (Russia)

Roy N., professor (USA)

Kuznetsov S.V., professor (Russia)

Sarbesh M., Ph.D. (India)

Lesnykh V.V., professor (Russia)

Skiadopoulos G., professor (Greece)

Mityagin S.A., cand. of science (Russia)

Stepanov A.G., professor (Russia)

Nikulin M., professor (France)

Uzhga-Rebrov O., Doct. in Eng. Sc. (Latvia)

Novoselov A., professor (Russia)



Wednesday, October 26

Session 1, Auditorium 23-13, SUAI
Chairman N.V. Hovanov

1000- 1030

Opening of the International Scientific School MA SR - 2016.
Konyukhovsky P., Popova L., Hovanov N. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, Saint-Petersburg State University). Yuan Value Measuring In IMF Units Of Account.

1030 - 1100

- Mozhaeva I.A., Nozik A.A., Strukov A.V. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, JSC "SPIK SZMA"). Algorithms Of Automated Structural Logical Modeling Of Reliability And Safety Of Structural Complex Systems.

1100 - 1130

- Solojentsev E.D. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, SUAI), Karasev V.V. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, IPME RAS). Databases And LP Management Of Risk And Efficiency of Systems.

1130 - 1150

- Coffee

1150 - 1220

- Gavrilenko A.M. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, JSC CCB "Rubin"). Methodology For Empirical Risk Assessment Of Accidents As Complex And Rare Events At Marine Objects.

1220 - 1250

- Grabusts P.S. (Larvia, Rezekne, Rezekne Academy of Technologies). Possibilities Of Using Ontologies In Risk Analysis Systems.

1250 - 1320

- Uzhga-Rebrov O. (Latvia, Rezekne, Rezekne Academy of Technologies), Kuleshova G. (Latvia, Riga, Riga Technical University). Concepts Of Fuzzy Random Events And Fuzzy Random Variables In Making Decisions Under Risk.

1320 - 1350

- Ryabinin I.A. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, Naval Academy). Guide In Logical And Probabilistic Calculation.

1350 - 1500

- Dinner.

1500 - 1530

- Anop M.F. (Russia, Vladivostok, IACP FEB RAS). Geometric Approach For Critical Duty Objects Hazard Forecasting In Lack Of Information Conditions.

1530 - 1600

- Karginova V.V. (Russia, Petrozavodsk, Institute of Economics of Karelian Scientific Center of RAS). Assessment And Accounting Of The Risk Of Lost Revenue In Russian Regions.

1600 - 1630

- Radionovs A., Uzhga-Rebrov O. (Larvia, Rezekne, Rezekne Academy of Technologies). Environmental Risk Assessment By Fuzzy Multiple Criteria Decision Making Approach.

1630 - 1650

- break

1650 - 1720

- Britov G.S., Osipova T.F. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, SUAI). Risks When Solving Problems In Business Processes.

1720 - 1750

- Shishkin V.M. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, SPII RAS). Threats Probabilities Evaluation By Structural Information In Expert Assessment


Thursday, October 27

Session 2, Auditorium 23-13, SUAI
Chairman E.D. Solozhentsev

1000 - 1030

- Solozhentsev E.D., Kryukova E.A., Kozlova V.I. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, SUAI). Global Innovative Index And LP Models For Innovation System Management.

1030 - 1100

- Polenin V.I. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, Naval Academy), Mozhaeva I.A. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, JSC "SPIK SZMA"), Potekhin A.A., Suschenkov D.A. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, Naval Academy). Probabilistic Assessment Of Current And Final Stability Of Battle And Technical Systems In Conditions Of Effect Of Striking Factors With Application Of GLPM.

1100 - 1130

- Dorogin A., Pesikov E.B. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, High School of printing and Mediatechnologies, Saint-Petersburg State University of Industrial Technologies and Design). Application Of The Method Of Analysis And Synthesis Of Parameters Under Information Deficiency For Solving The Problem Of Forecasting Sales Volume Production Of Enterprise.

1130 - 1150

- Coffee

1150 - 1220

- Pustylnik P.N. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, Russian State Pedagogical University). Use Of ASM Software For Assessment Of Risk Of Failure Of Innovation Management In Realization Of Resource-Intensive Projects.

1220 - 1250

- Baranova E.K., Gyrnec K.V. (Russia, Moscow, Higer School Of Economics National Reserach University). Modern DDoS Attacks As Threat To Online Business.

1250 - 1320

- Kholodnykh P.V. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, Saint-Petersburg Polytechnic University). Development Of Methodology For The Application Of Logical Equations To Determine Operating State Conditions Of Complex Systems.


- Closing of the International Scientific School MA SR - 2016.

1500 - 1600

- Demonstration of Software "Arbiter" for structural logical modeling, and "Expa" for synthesis of probability of event under expert NII-information. Professor E.D. Solozhentsev, Associate Professor E.I. Karaseva.


Other lectures

Abramov O.V. (Russia, Vladivostok, Institute of Automatics and Control Processes FEB of RAS). Functional-Parametrical Direction Of The Risks Theory.

Afanasiev V. V., Mardanshin E.R. (Russia, Kazan, Kazan National Research Technical University named after A.N.Tupolev). Digital Devices Selective Suppression Of Narrow-Band Interferers To Increase Reliability Of Radio Communication Systems.

Alexeev V.V. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, IPME RAS). LP-Analysis Of The Reliability Of The Metallurgical Complex Electric Supply.

Asanovich V.Ya., Turko V.A. (Belarus, Minsk, Belarusian State Economic University). Containment Of Financial Integration, As A Risk Factor For The Development Of National Economies.

Bochkov A.V. (Russia, Moscow, NIIGazEkonomika). Development An Integrated Approach For Managing Risks To Critical Infrastructure.

Karasev V.V. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, IPME RAS), Karaseva E.I. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, SUAI). Development Of Technology For Optimal Management In Bank By Integrated Risk Criterion On Basis Of Logical And Probabilistic Method.

Polishchuk V.A. (Russia, Krasnoyarsk, Siberian Federal University). Reliability Analysis Of Small Aircraft.

Rogov M.A. (Russia, Moscow, "Dubna" University). The Schulze Method For Risk Management.

Sigal A.V. (Crimea, Simferopol, Crimean Federal University named V.I. Vernadsky). Search Structure Of Effective Portfolio Which Is Based On Solution Of Completely Mixed Game.

Solojentsev E.D. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, IPME RAS). Subject Index Of Discipline "Management Of Socio-Economic Safety".

Tsitsiashvili G. Sh. (Russia, Vladivostok, Institute of Applied Mathematics FEB of RAS), Lelyukhin V.E. (Russia, Vladivostok, Far Eastern Federal University), Kolesnikova O.V. (Russia, Vladivostok, Far Eastern Federal University), Osipova M. A. (Russia, Vladivostok, Institute of Applied Mathematics FEB of RAS). Formal Design Of Structure Process In Machining Parts.



E.D. Solojentsev, Professor, (Russia, IPME RAS) - chairman,
V.V. Karasev (Russia, IPME RAS) - co-chairman,
E.I. Karaseva (Russia, SPbSUAI) - secretary,
V.I. Polenin (Russia, Naval Academy),
B.V. Sokolov (Russia, SPII RAS).




Authors who wish to participate in the conference should send a paper or brief thesis of lecture to, before September 15, 2016 as Microsoft Word file (not more 7 pages, type 11pt). All papers will be peer refereed. We will send the invitation to authors of accepted papers before October 01, 2016 by E_mail.
Please, download rules of paper's writing for publication in MA SR - 2016 Proceedings.
Please, fill in and send us preliminary registration form.




The accepted papers will be published as Proceeding of the School by support of Russian Foundation for Basic Research and sponsors. Detailed information about participants, sponsors and the program of the School will be sent to participants and posted at this page.




The Organizing Committee is inviting any interested organization to support financially the School. Sponsors will be honorary guests of the School. Sponsors may place their logotypes and advertising in school's exhibition hall and all printing issues.




Registration fee is 150 USD before October, 20 and 200 USD after October, 20. The fee covers a part of expenses for organization of Scientific School and the publishing of Proceedings. Registration fee includes attendance of all sessions, one copy of proceedings, refreshments during coffee-breaks).




IPME RAS, Bolshoi pr., 61. V.O.
199178, St.Petersburg, RUSSIA
Tel.: 7(812)3214766 Fax.: 7(812)3214771
Evgueni Solojentsev - chairman
Vasily Karasev - co-chairman
E_mail: .


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